At 6:57 p.m. on May 7, 2010 Source: China Economic Net
Recently, the Bank of China announced on May 10, the savings again raised the reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, this is the third time this year the central bank raised the reserve ratio, raising interest rates is expected to be further enriched, and further tightening of credit policy. In the context of growing inflation, by the fall in the stock and futures markets, experienced a decline in April in the second half, steel prices bottomed out in May? Or continue to fall? 1:00 a focus of public attention.
April 14, the State Council executive meeting held real estate control message is confirmed, then the new state 10 real estate, interest rates and China Construction Bank is expected to finance a series of negative factors to be released gradually, domestic steel prices with the stock and futures markets all the way down closing by the end of April, the highest decline in the major cities close to 200.
"Steel prices from March to April 14 in mid-month period rose from 3,800 yuan to 4,700 yuan or so, up nearly 1,000 yuan, 14, 15, started down to the end of April, a drop of just less than 200 Although iron ore and other raw material prices are rising, inflation is more and more serious, but the overall feeling or it is not enough, the risk is not completely released. "by the end of April, in a circle to a small gathering, a Bit Beijing traders for the current trend in the performance of strange steel concerns.
The traders of that, in general, see the policy in the first quarter, demand to see the second quarter, but the situation is more complicated in 2010, rising inflation, the possibility of central bank interest rate increase, although demand has been in a rigid up channel, but the general trend in the market to weaken, stock futures fell, high inventories and the stability of mineral prices and other factors, the steel city market driven by demand effect is not significant, in May still considerable room for steel prices continue to fall, "the key have to look at policy developments. "
"May will not raise interest rates? The yuan would appreciate in value? Inflation will reach what extent? Real estate regulation will further deepen? These factors will significantly affect the market." Furthermore, the trade Business analysis: "May the continuing downward adjustment if the market and can adjust in place, the second half of the market may be bottoming out rapid rise into the channel; but if early May if steel prices continue to rise substantially, it is likely the second half, or even 6 month trend of an extremely negative impact. "traders who hold this view and a lot number.
Shi, a manager in the Access of steel in about the trend in May, said: "That place does not look to adjust? Adjustment in place, driven by demand, steel prices in May rose will enter a new channel, if you still looking for quick results , it is a situation that may arise is that demand is increasing, while steel prices continue to fall situation, any kind of goods the same, prices go down, down the total, rose up and momentum are fierce, on the contrary, up too hard, and fall have fallen, the key was picked the right time. "
According to Lange Steel Information Research Center, market monitoring, the holiday over, all over the country began to rebound in steel city signs to 25mm rebar, for example, in May 4,5 within two days, the average price in major cities rose 35 yuan, Beijing, Tianjin, back to 4700 yuan market prices high, while the Shanghai will remain priced at 4,210 yuan.
However, some traders on the Steel City in May hold sufficient confidence in the trend, China Railway Materials told a reporter: "The current stock market futures were also lowered, from trends on the analysis, stock market basically in place, continue to not much room down, basically similar to the futures market is expected to increase in May will enter a channel. in demand the release of stocks against the background of falling steel prices will be with the stock market, on the city up. "
May 5, the domestic stock market rebound after two consecutive days, the situation again fell slightly, closing at noon close, the Shanghai index closed at 2,802.241 points, down 1.17%; the same time, on the varieties of the fall across the board, thread 1010 benchmark contract closed at 4,630 yuan midday, down 19 yuan, the overall is still high; Lange steel e-marketplace for the high line GX100715 main contract closed at 4,502 yuan midday, down 46 yuan.
"Basic stock is close to the bottom of the drop was not much room, but the current tangle of various negative factors, expected some time in the low correction, while the futures market and the electronic disk space is still down, there will be some decline is expected to increase, but the raw materials price and demand is getting warmer support, should not collapse. "The people that own iron goods on the stock market, futures market is not very thorough, but because it needs frequent attention.
MMS said a manager of Tianjin similar views, "mainly to see the results and policy adjustment period, demand changes to it! But I think May should be a wave of downward adjustment of price, but due to the impact of raw material costs and demand pick up CPI should not be great, by the end of May might be a good market there, the whole in May should not be poor. "
The manager said the market complex, on the one hand, the national economy gradually to improve, demand for steel has entered the peak season, while the stock fell 7 weeks in a row, iron ore prices on the steel support will be long; but on the other hand, by inflation, the state started small in the financial credit tightening is expected to further increase interest rates, real estate, introduced the New Deal, while steel prices remain high in itself, the formation of strong constraints on the rising steel prices. "Similarly, positive and negative factors exist, but the overall market trend is to gradually for the better."
In addition, the views of domestic securities institutions also tend to divide more than the market outlook, part of the bearish market outlook, financial and investment institutions and funds have significantly lighten the phenomenon, and some organizations have the appropriate, timely jiacang. Mainstream view that the recent real estate regulation, interest rate expectations, refinancing rumors, funds and size of the non-lighten up, stock index futures to enlarge the market ups and downs, the small cap valuations are too high to adjust demand and so on, have become a huge market bearish pressure .
However, there are some people that, while the surface of the current market surging, over and over reefs, but continue to lower space is not large, Shenhua futures an investment question, said the current market conditions are not suitable for big move, "While prices are down, but substantial to eat Jin's not much, individual defense in careful, because basically there is no profiteering market factors, not down through the total feeling. "
Lange Steel Information Research Center, Xin Ge believes that the current steel market continues to run in the rising channel, as traders operating practices and make post-holiday market is a substantial pull-up situation, but the wait trend of lower demand has not eliminated makes the poor market transactions. However, steel consumption to speed up the social stock, and again concentrated near the downstream demand, while the inflow of high cost resources have made the domestic steel market volatility adjustment, will rise 5 to resume in mid-late situation. (David Lange Steel Information Center Field)
(Editor: Liu Peng)
五月鋼材市場走勢分析:中下旬鋼價恢復上漲態勢 2010年05月07日 18:57 來源：中國經濟網
近日，中國人民銀行宣佈，5月10日起，再次將儲蓄準備金率上調0.5個百分點，這已經是央行年內第三次上調準備金率，加息預計進一步加濃，信貸政策進一步趨緊。在通貨膨脹日益高漲的背景下，受股市和期貨市場下跌影響，經歷了4月份後半月下跌後，5月份鋼價觸底反彈？還是繼續下跌？一時成為公眾關注的焦點。
4月14日，國務院召開常務會議，房地產調控消息被證實，隨後房地產新國十條、加息預期和建行融資等一系列利空因素逐步被放出，國內鋼價隨股市、期市一路下跌，截止4月底，主要城市最高跌幅接近200元。
“鋼價從3月中旬到4月14日一個月的時間內從3800元左右上漲到4700元左右，上漲了近1000元，14日、15日開始下跌到4月底，跌幅僅僅不到200元，雖然鐵礦石等原材料價格都在上漲，通貨膨脹也越來越嚴重，但是總感覺跌的還不夠徹底，風險沒有完全被釋放出來。”4月底，在一次圈內人士小型聚會上，一位北京貿易商對於當前鋼價走勢表現異樣的擔憂。
這位貿易商分析認為，一般情況下，第一季度看政策，第二季度看需求，但是2010年情況較為複雜，通貨膨脹日益嚴重，央行加息可能性加大，雖然目前市場需求已經處於剛性上升通道，但是在市場大勢走弱、股市期貨下跌、高庫存和礦價基本穩定等因素影響下，鋼市行情受需求帶動作用並不大，5月份鋼價繼續下跌空間仍然很大，“關鍵還得看政策動向。”
“5月份會不會加息？人民幣會不會升值？通貨膨脹會達到什麼樣的程度？房地產調控會不會進一步深化？這些因素都會對市場造成很大的影響。”進而，這位貿易商分析認為：“5月份如果市場繼續向下調整，並能調整到位，下半月市場可能會觸底進入快速上升通道；但如果5月初鋼價繼續大幅上調的話，很可能對下半月、甚至6月份走勢造成極為不利的影響。”持這一觀點的貿易商為數並不少。
中仕通達的一位經理在談到5月份鋼價走勢時說：“就看能調整到位不？調整到位了，在需求帶動下，5月份鋼價會進入一個新的上漲通道，如果還是急功近利，很可能出現的一個情況就是，需求不斷上升、而鋼價不斷下跌的局面，任何一種商品都一樣，有漲有跌，跌的徹底，漲起來勢頭也猛，相反，漲得太猛了，跌的也慘，關鍵得選對時機。”
據蘭格鋼鐵資訊研究中心市場監測，五一假期過後，全國各地鋼市開始出現反彈跡象，以25mm螺紋鋼為例，5月4、5日兩天內，國內主要城市平均價格上漲35元，北京、天津市場價格重新回到4700元高位，而上海則依然保持在4210元價位。
不過，部分貿易商對5月份鋼市走勢抱有充足的信心，中鐵物資一位人士告訴記者：“目前股市、期貨都還在向下調整中，從走勢上分析，股市調整基本到位，繼續下跌空間不大，期貨市場基本類似，預計5月份會進入一輪上升通道。在需求不斷釋放、庫存不斷下降的背景下，鋼材市場價格也會隨著股市、期市上漲。”
5月5日，國內股市經過兩個交易日連續反彈後，再次出現小幅下跌局面，截止午間收盤，上證指數收于2802.241點，下跌1.17%；於此同時，上期所各品種全線下跌，螺紋1010主力合約午間收于4630元，下跌19元，整體仍處於高位；蘭格鋼鐵電子交易市場高線GX100715主力合約午間收于4502元，下跌46元。
“股市基本已經接近底部，下跌空間不大，但是目前各種利空因素糾結，估計會在低位盤整一段時間，而期貨市場和電子盤仍有下跌空間，預計還會有一定的下跌幅度，但是在原材料價格和需求逐漸回暖的支撐下，應該不會大跌。”上述中鐵物資人士表示自己對股市、期貨市場不是很透徹，但因為需要而經常關注。
天津彩信一位經理也表示類似觀點，“主要看這段時間調整效果和政策、需求變化如何了！但是我認為5月份應該會有一波向下調整行情，但是由於受原料成本和需求回暖影響，跌幅應該不會很大，5月底可能會出現好的行情，整個5月份應該不會很差。”
這位經理表示目前市場比較複雜，一方面，國民經濟逐步向好，鋼材也進入市場需求旺季，而庫存已經連續7周下降，鐵礦石價格對鋼價支撐將長期存在；但是另外一方面，受通貨膨脹影響，國家在金融信貸方面開始小幅收緊，加息預期進一步加大，房地產新政出臺，而鋼材價格本身仍處於高位，對鋼價上漲形成有力制約。“有利和不利因素同樣存在，但是市場整體走勢是逐步向好的。”
此外，國內證券機構多後市看法也趨於分化，部分對後市看空的金融投資機構和基金出現大幅減倉現象，而部分機構卻在適量、適時進行加倉。市場主流觀點認為，近期房地產調控、加息預期、再融資傳聞、基金和大小非減倉、股指期貨放大市場漲跌、中小盤估值過高有調整需求等等，都成為打壓市場的巨大利空。
不過也有部分人士認為，雖然目前市場表面風起雲湧，遍地暗礁，但是繼續走低空間卻不大，神華期貨一位投資問表示，目前市場形勢不適合有大動作，“雖然價格都在下跌，但是大幅吃進的並不多，各家都在謹慎防禦，因為現在市場基本不存在任何暴利因素，總感覺還沒有跌透。”
蘭格鋼鐵資訊研究中心研究員葛昕認為，目前國內鋼材市場繼續運行在上升通道之中，由於貿易商的操作手法而使得節後市場呈現大幅拉漲局面，但是下游需求的觀望態勢並未消除，使得市場成交不暢。但在鋼材社會庫存消耗加快，以及下游需求又一次集中臨近，同時高成本資源的流入，都使得國內鋼材市場在波動調整之後，將於5月中下旬重新恢復上漲態勢。(蘭格鋼鐵新聞中心 田國寶)
（責任編輯：劉朋）
Reference: http://big5.ce.cn/cysc/newmain/jdpd/yj/201005/07/t20100507_20380973.shtml
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